Bermuda Commercial Bank Newshttp://www.bcb.bm/60Bermuda Commercial Bank Limited (“BCB”) announces a strategic investment in Westhouse Holdings plc (“Westhouse”) an integrated corporate finance and broking house, based in London.http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/docs/press/BCB press release Westhouse.pdf2010-08-05T09:04:16.297Bermuda Commercial Bank Limited announces changes to the Board of Directors and approves the proposed amalgamation with FBG subject to a Special General Meeting. Permanent Investments Limited today released the results of its tender offer for the remaining shares of Bermuda Commercial Bank Limited. http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/docs/press/Press Release TO Results 25-May-2010.pdf2010-05-25T17:05:05.290Permanent Investments Limited (“Permanent”) today mailed its tender offer (“Offer”) for the remaining shares of Bermuda Commercial Bank Limited (“BCB”) and also disclosed its intention to amalgamate First Bermuda Group Ltd. (“FBG”) with BCB...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/docs/press/Press Release tender offer BCB Shares April 29 2010.pdf2010-04-29T13:37:42.620The Bank reported a net loss for the six month period ended March 31, 2010 of $1.47 million compared to net income of $680,000 at March 31, 2009, a decrease of $2.15 million. Diluted loss per share was $0.23 compared with earnings of $0.11 per share one year ago...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/docs/seminfo/Half Year 2010 March.pdf2010-04-27T16:32:52.437Bermuda Commercial Bank Limited and Permanent Investments Limited jointly announced today, following approval of the Bermuda Monetary Authority that Permanent has become the controlling shareholder of BCB. Permanent has acquired the entire shareholding interest of First Curacao International Bank N.V. (“FCIB”) in BCB, representing an aggregate of 3,461,577 common shares or approximately 54% of the currently issued and outstanding BCB common shares. In addition, the shareholders of Permanent have acquired all of FCIB’s 1,200,000 outstanding options in BCB.http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/docs/BCB Initial Joint Press Release 15-Apr-2010.pdf2010-04-15T14:11:26.757Stocks rose around the world and commodities rallied as the USD and the JPY fell against the EUR after Greek deficit concern abated and the economic recovery sparked demand for higher-yielding assets...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3262010-03-29T10:09:06.160The EUR weakened to a 10-month low against the USD after government officials said the EU may need International Monetary Fund help to bail out Greece...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3252010-03-24T10:02:17.973The USD rallied on concern growing government debt burdens will stifle the recovery, sending stocks lower and denting demand for higher-yielding ccys such as the AUD and NOK...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3242010-03-22T10:22:54.300The EUR headed for its biggest weekly decline against the USD since January as concern Greece will fail to secure financial assistance from the EU damped demand for the ccy...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3232010-03-19T09:59:31.307The EUR weakened this morning and Greek stocks and bonds fell on concern a bailout plan for the region’s most indebted country is unravelling. The JPY and USD appreciated while oil declined...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3222010-03-18T10:07:50.767U.K. jobless claims unexpectedly fell in February at the fastest pace since 1997, suggesting the economic recovery is strengthening as Britons prepare for a general election within weeks...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3212010-03-17T10:10:54.500The EUR strengthened against the JPY after a report showed that German investor confidence fell less than forecast in March...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3202010-03-16T10:02:45.433The EUR snapped three days of gains versus the USD after some European finance ministers ruled out aid for Greece as the nation seeks to narrow the largest budget deficit in the common-currency region...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3192010-03-15T10:06:20.117The JPY rose against higher- yielding ccys amid speculation China will seek to damp economic growth after inflation jumped to a 16-month high, fueling demand for the ccy as a haven...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3182010-03-11T10:44:56.557The JPY gained broadly this morning as Asian equity markets traded in the red according to Reuters, prompting a pullback in risk trades and a move into the low-yielding JPY...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3172010-03-09T10:02:21.647The JPY and the USD fell this morning vs. higher-yielding ccys on speculation that wealthier European nations would rescue Greece financially if needed, reducing the perceived risk of debt defaults throughout Europe...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3162010-03-08T10:07:17.310The EUR fell from a two-week high against the USD on speculation the ECB will delay withdrawing stimulus measures today as Greece’s struggle to reduce its budget deficit hampers the region’s recovery...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3152010-03-04T09:10:37.267The EUR rose against the USD overnight,hitting the day's high as a Greek government source cited details of freshplans to tackle Greece's debt problems...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3142010-03-03T10:17:31.757The GBP fell for a sixth day versus the USD, its longest run of declines in more than 16 months, amid concern Britons may fail to elect a government with a large enough majority to cut the country’s deficit..http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3132010-03-02T10:06:08.773The USD hit an eight-month high againsta currency basket this morning in the wake of the Federal Reserve's surpriseincrease in the interest rate it charges banks for emergency loans...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3122010-02-19T11:54:28.500The USD edged closer to a seven-monthhigh against a basket of currencies this morning after minutes showed the U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers had discussed strategies for withdrawing monetary stimulus.http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3112010-02-18T10:07:57.627The JPY and the USD fell against the AUD and NZD as signs of a stronger economic recovery and assurances over European nations’ debts boosted demand for stocks and higher-yielding assets...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3102010-02-11T10:07:28.773The EUR rose the most in more than five months vs USD as EU officials held out the prospect of aiding Greece if the country made progress in reducing its budget deficit...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3092010-02-10T10:06:33.003The JPY and USD fell this morning on speculation European officials meeting this week will agree to assist Greece in tackling its budget deficit, reducing demand for the ccys as a refuge...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3082010-02-09T10:05:27.960Stocks and commodities fell this morning, the EUR dropped to an eight-month low and bond risk soared for a second day on concern Euro governments will struggle to fund deficits as the US remains burdened by unemployment...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3072010-02-05T10:08:04.220Stocks fell, sending the MSCI World Index to its longest losing streak in seven weeks, and commodities dropped on concern Chinese curbs on bank lending will curtail global growth...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3062010-01-26T10:00:51.233The EUR advanced against the USD for the second day to reach a high of 1.4192 during the overnight trade, and it may continue to push higher going into the NY open as investors raise have again their appetite for risk...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3052010-01-25T10:30:57.080nancial stocks fell and the USD weakened on concern President Barack Obama’s plan to rein in banks will dent U.S. earnings...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3042010-01-22T10:04:11.200The USD and JPY rose against most major other ccys as global stocks slid on disappointing corporate earnings and steps by China to limit bank lending, reducing demand for riskier assets. EURUSD declined to a five-month low as Greece’s bonds tumbled...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3032010-01-21T10:19:19.740USD and JPY rose against their higher-yielding counterparts overnight as steps by China to limit bank lending fueled concern that the global economic recovery will slow, boosting demand for the currencies as a haven...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3022010-01-20T09:57:08.557German investor confidence declined more than economists estimated in January as the economic recovery showed signs of losing momentum. The ZEW Center for European Economic Research said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict developments six months ahead, fell to 47.2 from 50.4 in December, its fourth straight drop...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3012010-01-19T09:59:36.777EURUSD declined the most in almost a month on concern Greece’s struggles to reduce its budget deficit will damage confidence in the region...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=3002010-01-15T09:22:06.277JPY weakened against higher-yielding currencies for a second day after an Australian employment report beat analysts’ forecasts and stocks rose in Asia and Europe, increasing demand for riskier assets...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2992010-01-14T09:05:11.413GBPUSD rose for a fourth day, its longest run of gains since November, after BoE policy maker Andrew Sentance was cited as saying interest rates may have to increase this year...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2982010-01-13T12:17:52.990The JPY fell against both the EUR and USD after Japanese Finance Minister Naoto Kan said on his first day in office that he would welcome a weaker ccy...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2972010-01-07T10:09:30.177The JPY fell against the USD overnight as signs that the global economy is rebounding eroded demand for the JPY as a haven and Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii resigned...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2962010-01-06T10:08:49.660The JPY rose the most in a month against the USD on speculation its 7.7% decline last month was excessive and as some of the nation’s exporters converted overseas earnings back into their own currency according to Bloomberg this morning.http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2952010-01-05T10:51:19.840The USD declined overnight, reversing earlier gains as caution set in ahead of key U.S. data, leaving investors wary of pushing the USD up further after it hit a four-month high versus the JPY...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2942010-01-04T10:13:02.520The EUR hit a 2 1/2-month low against the USD this morning, extending losses after data showed a fall in German economic sentiment, suggesting that any economic recovery may be sluggish...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2932009-12-15T10:04:29.993The EUR rose against the USD this morning after Dubai's announcement it had received help from Abu Dhabi to repay its debts increased risk appetite...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2922009-12-14T10:15:07.440The EUR dipped slightly against theUSD this morning on concerns over the poor fiscal health of Greece and Spain highlighted by rating agencies in recent days...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2912009-12-10T10:12:58.137The EUR climbed vs the USD this morning,recovering from its lowest point in more than a month after Greece's credit rating was downgraded to BBB+, as investors sensed selling in the ccy hadbeen overdone...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2902009-12-09T10:14:04.133The JPY declined this morning after Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama was cited by the Nikkei newspaper as saying the ccy’s strength can’t be left as it is, fueling speculation policy makers will act to stem its gains...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2892009-12-02T10:18:03.780The USD fell against high-yielding ccys after China’s manufacturing grew at the fastest pace in five years and Dubai said it’s in “constructive” talks with creditors, boosting stocks and paring demand for safety...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2882009-12-01T10:04:59.373The USD fell this morning after the United Arab Emirates said it would stand behind banks in Dubai, easing concerns about a looming debt default and prompting investors to sell USD for other ccys and assets...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2872009-11-30T10:44:15.857Bermuda Commercial Bank Limited recorded a net operating loss of $0.38 million for the year ended September 30, 2009 compared to a net profit of $5.16 million in 2008. However there was a net gain in shareholders’ equity, due to a $1.81 million unrealized gain in investments in securities...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/docs/seminfo/Press_Release_November_2009.pdf2009-11-25T15:58:10.863The USD weakened beyond $1.50 against the EUR this morning and to a 10-month low versus the JPY after the Federal Reserve refrained from voicing concern over the USD’s decline...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2842009-11-25T09:37:29.163Stock markets rose around the world and the USD began a third week of declines after Asian leaders pledged to maintain measures to stimulate economic growth...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2832009-11-16T10:11:13.287The USD declined against the EUR as optimism the global economic recovery is gathering momentum spurred investors to buy higher-yielding assets. The USD snapped a three-day gain versus the EUR and slid against the NOK and the AUD..http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2822009-11-13T10:11:33.380The JPY rose as Asian stocks and U.S. equity futures declined and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said the world faces an uneven recovery, spurring demand for the JPY as a refuge...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2812009-11-12T10:41:31.917The GBP surged to a high of 1.6364 against the USD following the BoE interest rate decision as the central bank increased its asset purchase program to GBP 200B from GBP 175B in the previous month amid forecasts for an expansion to GBP 225B, and the ccy may continue to appreciate over the coming months as policy makers hold a hawkish outlook for inflation...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2802009-11-05T10:27:40.343The USD and the JPY fell this morning as improved bank earnings drove gains in stocks and fueling demand for higher-yielding currencies...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2792009-11-04T10:05:58.020The JPY advanced as stocks fell on evidence banks are struggling to shake off the effects of the global recession, decreasing demand for higher-yielding ccys...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2782009-11-03T10:03:03.467The EUR rose against the USD and the JPY this morning, buoyed by euro zone data confirming an expansion in manufacturingactivity, while the AUD rose ahead of an expected rate hike...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2772009-11-02T10:15:48.783The USD edged slightly higher against several ccys overnight and hit a three-week high against the JPY, whichsuffered as investors took profits on recent sharp gains...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2762009-10-16T11:53:10.313The USD hit a 14-month low vs the EUR this morning on the view that U.S. interest rates will stay low, while optimism about a global recovery tarnished the USD's safe-haven appeal...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2752009-10-14T10:10:14.740The CAD and AUD rose to 14-month highs against the USD earlier this morning on the back of gains in oil and gold prices. Growth-linked and commodity-linked currencies have been performing well against a broadly weaker USD...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2742009-10-13T10:06:21.923The USD hit a two-week high against the JPY overnight with traders continuing to cover short positions according to Reuters as they debated how long U.S. interest rates will stay low...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2732009-10-12T10:02:25.527The USD rose against the JPY and the EUR and government bonds fell after Fed Chairman Bernanke said the bank will tighten monetary policy once the economy improves.  The USD advanced as much as 1.2% versus the JPY, the most since Aug. 7, and was up 0.5%...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2722009-10-09T10:08:49.200The JPY rose broadly overnight, as market players tested how far Japanese authorities would allow the JPY to rise, while commodity-linked currencies hit multi-month highs on increased risk appetite...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2702009-10-07T10:04:39.597The USD fell overnight on a media report, later denied, that Gulf Arab states were in talks to abandon the USD in oil trade according to Reuters, while the AUD rose after the RBA raised interest rates...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2692009-10-06T10:10:02The USD weakened overnight after a G7 meeting over the weekend reaffirmed the market's view policymakers are comfortable with a gradually weakening USD, a trade encouraged by the resilience in global equity markets...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2682009-10-05T10:26:03.730The JPY rose on concern rising unemployment and loan defaults will slow the U.S. economic recovery, sending stocks lower and boosting demand for the currency as a refuge...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2672009-10-02T10:11:43.523The EUR fell this morning, dragged down vs the USD after a top EU official said euro zone finance ministers would discuss the ccy's appreciation before a G7 meeting on Saturday. The EUR fell .5% on the day against the USD after the EU's Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said EUR strength would be discussed when officials meet in Istanbul at the weekend...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2662009-10-01T10:09:09.547The USD fell against major ccys overnight, with quarter-end buying lifting GBP and the JPY, while the EUR gained after results of a ECB cash tender offer...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2652009-09-30T10:16:06.617The USD edged highger against the JPY this morning in a corrective move after big gains yesterday as Japan's finance minister backtracked over its tolerance of a stronger JPY...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2642009-09-29T10:01:56.147The JPY hit an 8-month high against the USD this morning but later pulled back after Japan's finance minister appeared to tone down comments suggesting he was comfortable with the currency's appreciation...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2632009-09-28T09:59:11.623The JPY strengthened overnight, heading for a weekly advance against the EUR, on speculation Japanese exporters repatriated profits before the fiscal first half ends this month...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2622009-09-25T10:02:04.900The USD hovered near its weakest for a year against a currency basket this morning before a U.S. Federal Reserve policy decision later in the day expected to keep interest rates at record lows...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2612009-09-23T12:34:45.580The EUR hit a one-year high against a weak USD this morning as dealers took advantage of the USD's rise in yesterday's session to resume selling ahead of a Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and a Group of 20 summit later in the week...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2602009-09-22T10:13:42.443The JPY rose for a third day against the EUR, the longest run since July, on speculation Chinese production curbs will slow economic recovery, increasing demand for the relative safety of the JPY...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2592009-08-27T10:04:19.937The EUR hit 2-1/2 month highs against GBP this morning after an improvement in German business morale strengthened signs that Europe's largest economy was shaking off its worst recession since WWII...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2582009-08-26T10:01:48.697The JPY rose broadly against the EUR and the GBP as warnings by banking chiefs in China and the U.S. that some asset prices are overblown reduced demand for higher-yielding currencies...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2572009-08-25T10:09:11.367The JPY fell versus both USD and EUR this morning as gains in equities increased risk sentiment, redirecting investors towards higher-yielding currencies such as the AUD...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2562009-08-24T10:05:43.650The JPY slipped slightly this morning, while higher-yielding currencies crept up as a recovery in global shares and oil prices stoked some risk appetite in slow summer trading...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2552009-08-20T10:08:45.717The EUR gained against the USD and the JPY this morning, recovering from losses the previous sessions as a better-than-expected German investor sentiment survey buoyed optimism about economic recovery...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2532009-08-18T10:04:41.457The EUR hit a two-week low against the JPY this morning and struggled versus the USD as weak global shares and oil prices ruined traders' appetite for risk and battered currencies seen to be high-risk...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2522009-08-17T10:03:03.623The market was somewhat quiet overnight, with the largest mover being NZDUSD up 1.4% on stronger than expected retail sales data leading to the market questioning the RBNZ's forthcoming policy result on Sep 9...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2512009-08-14T10:50:33.330"Risk off" sentiment pervaded in the early session last night, with the USD rallying across the board in G10 and EM (again, except for the usual pair, usdjpy) after sentiment was further weighed down by China's equity bourses diving 4.5% in a delayed reaction to poor data the night prior...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2502009-08-12T10:56:30.057The USD edged down against the EUR this morning as the market has stop to ponder whether the USD could sustain its gains from its recent rally on the back of smaller U.S. job losses last month...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2492009-08-11T10:19:33.500In the US, the main focus this week will be on the outcome of the two-day FOMC meeting (ends Wednesday). As far as this week’s dataflow is concerned, the focus will be on the household sector, especially the July retail sales report on Thursday...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2482009-08-10T10:13:59.557The USD edged lower against a basket of currencies this morning as investors are awaiting U.S. jobs data to gauge the sustainability of a recent 'risk rally'...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2472009-08-07T10:14:51.900The AUD rose to near the highest level against the USD in 10 months after the nation’s employers unexpectedly added jobs in July...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2462009-08-06T10:07:33.667The JPY and the USD rose as investors shunned higher-yielding currencies after a four-week rally left some assets expensive relative to the outlook for economies and earnings...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2452009-08-05T10:21:17.280The JPY rose as traders scaled back bets on higher-yielding currencies and stocks snapped three days of gains, fueling demand for the JPY as a haven...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2442009-08-04T10:01:28.467The USD hit its lowest level in 2009 this morning as solid banking earnings and a UK survey showing manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanding boosted the view that the global economy is over the worst...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2432009-08-03T12:25:01.517The JPY and the USD weakened before a U.S. report that may show the contraction in industrial production slowed, increasing optimism the worst of the recession is over and damping demand for the safest assets...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2422009-07-15T10:14:41.933The JPY and USD may decline further against the EUR after a rally in banks spurred by Goldman Sachs before it reports earnings today added to speculation investors will increase holdings of higher-yielding assets...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2412009-07-14T10:02:39.797The JPY and Treasuries rose on speculation the global recovery is faltering while stocks fell in Europe after Renault SA Chief Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn ruled out an economic rebound before 2011...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2402009-07-10T10:12:01.050The JPY rose for a fifth day against the EUR, the longest stretch in five months, after a Japanese government report showed machinery orders declined for a third month in May...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2392009-07-08T10:07:21.900The EUR recovered its losses against the JPY after German manufacturing orders were stronger than expected and jumped the most in almost two years in May...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2382009-07-07T11:30:00.260Employers in the U.S cut 467,000 jobs in June, the unemployment rate rose and hourly earnings stagnated, offering little evidence the Obama administration's stimulus package is shoring up the labor market...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2372009-07-02T10:07:43.013The JPY declined against 14 of the 16 most-traded currencies, falling as low as 136.45 per EUR, its weakest level since June 15...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2362009-07-01T10:14:53.430The U.K. economy shrank more than previously estimated in the 1st quarter in the biggest contraction in over 50 years as the recession stifled industries from construction to services...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2352009-06-30T10:03:54.900Strategists who came closest to predicting the USD’s value against the EUR so far this year see it strengthening as much as 17% in the second half as the U.S. recovers from the recession faster than Europe...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2342009-06-29T10:00:41.277The USD fell, heading for its biggest weekly loss against the EUR in a month, after China repeated its call for a “super-sovereign” currency and stocks in Europe and Asia rose...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2332009-06-26T11:31:48.627The JPY fell the most in three weeks against the EUR after the Fed signaled yesterday the recession is easing, decreasing demand for the JPY as a refuge in favor of higher-yielding assets...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2322009-06-25T10:03:09.483The EUR slipped against the USD and JPY on Monday, and higher-yielding and commodity-linked currencies also fell on investor concern about global growth prospects...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2312009-06-22T10:43:19.047EU leaders spotted the first signs of a 'sustainable economic recovery' from the worst slump since WWII and ruled out further pump-priming measures...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2302009-06-19T09:14:23.153European and EM equities declined for the fifth day, the longest losing streak since January, as an unexpected drop in U.K. retail sales (down 0.6% in April) and downgrades of U.S. banks by S&P...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2292009-06-18T09:25:24.157The USD fell against the EUR as traders trimmed bets the Fed will raise interest rates this year amid signs deflation is taking hold...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2282009-06-17T09:11:05.420Confidence among U.S. consumers probably increased for a fourth straight month in June, reflecting signs that the worst recession in at least five decades could end this year, economists said before a private report...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2272009-06-12T09:56:02.500Global data has given increasing signals of a rebound from the deepest recession in six decades, driving stock markets sharply higher from a March trough. U.S. May retail sales data and weekly jobless claims, both due at 8:30EST, may give more clarity on the health of the world's largest economy...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2262009-06-11T12:33:35.813The USD and the JPY have weakened against higher-yielding currencies on speculation the global recession is easing this morning, spurring demand for riskier assets...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2252009-06-10T10:12:06.563 Rising commodities are clearly beneficial for much of the EM space and it is one positive side-effect of the outflows from UST and the USD...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2242009-06-10T10:04:11.250The EUR dipped against the USD while Bund futures rose on Tuesday after German industrial production data unexpectedly fell...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2232009-06-09T10:00:04.470The USD rose for a second day versus the EUR as stocks in Europe declined ...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2222009-06-08T09:54:25.833The Bank of England for the third consecutive month left interest rates unchanged at a record low of 0.5 percent...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2212009-06-04T09:55:57.990U.S. Federal Reserve officials surprised bankers earlier this week by insisting they raise specific amounts of new capital...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2202009-06-03T09:59:29.210 Taking a peak at the Fed's weekly custody data implies that the one big factor behind the recent USD struggle has been an increased reserve manager demand for the EUR...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2192009-06-01T10:08:26.380 This week brings the first CDS auction settlement in EM since the credit derivatives blow-up...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2182009-06-01T10:07:47.537A missing Air France plane flying from Rio de Janeiro to Paris has been out of radio contact for a while, says KLM, part of Air France-KLM Group...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2172009-06-01T10:07:21.897 The increase in US yields has captured the attention of investors this week...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2162009-05-29T10:14:37.003 Net inflows into Asia remain positive on a 5-day MA basis, although the underlying momentum has become more erratic...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2152009-05-29T10:14:26.177Once again the equity strength, both yesterday and overnight, has restored the market's appetite for risk...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2142009-05-29T10:13:40.910 MEXICO Further evidence of economic weakness. The government reported that per capita GDP dropped 28% during 1Q09 to USD7,225..http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2132009-05-27T09:57:43.893GBP was able to push through the 1.60 level for the first time in 7 months, on the back of a rise in global equity markets...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2102009-05-27T09:56:01.690 We have noted several times in the past the positive link between EUR/USD and crude oil prices...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2092009-05-26T09:59:05.050 A big week for monetary policy in EMEA this week with rate meetings scheduled in Israel, Hungary, Poland and South Africa...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2082009-05-26T09:58:50.207The markets have been relatively quiet to start the week, with both the US and the UK on holiday yesterday...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2072009-05-26T09:58:32.910 In Brazil, risk appetite seems to be more the cause than monetary policy, while in Mexico, the curve has been under some pressure due to issuance, even leading to higher rates at the short end...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2062009-05-21T10:23:10.660 With the UK looking to issue some 200bn in gilts in 2009-2010, auctions are likely to hold more interest this year than has been the case in the past...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2052009-05-21T10:23:02.520GBP is trading lower this morning on the back of a negative report from the S&P rating agency...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2042009-05-21T10:22:32.817 India’s incumbent political party had won a larger than expected number of seats in the latest elections...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2032009-05-18T10:09:38.253Following the convincing win by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and the Congress Party in the Indian national election, both the Rupee and Sensex have made considerable gains on the day...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2022009-05-18T10:09:25.037 In EMFX we believe we are moving away from an environment dominated by a single, global factor, to one in which idiosyncratic risks are more important...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2012009-05-15T10:10:24.020Risk continues to come off today, despite stock markets closing higher in Asia and trading flat in Europe...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=2002009-05-15T10:10:06.020 While the uptrend in the equity market has faltered in recent days, some confirmation from the MPI would help in assessing whether we are observing a 'blip', or a more sustained turn to the downside...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1992009-05-14T09:57:05.067 According to our Asia Market Risk Monitor, India is standing out as the jitteriest market in the region...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1982009-05-14T09:56:28.207The risk aversion that took off after yesterday's weak US retail sales numbers has continued into today...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1972009-05-14T09:56:19.207The USD weakness that we saw yesterday is continuing to prevail this morning...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1962009-05-13T10:00:35.660The Bank reported net income for the six month period ended March 31, 2009 of $680,000 compared to $4.39 million at March 31, 2008, a decrease of $3.71 million...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/docs/AnnualReports/Press_Release_May_12_2009.PDF2009-05-12T16:50:51.067 Recent macro data out of China suggest one shouldn't get too optimistic about the Chinese growth story just yet...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1932009-05-12T09:58:22.113Strong housing data has taken AUD, NZD, and GBP higher this morning...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1922009-05-12T09:57:53.143 In LatAm the main event will be the Banxico rate decision, where despite lingering inflation, we expect Banxico to focus on the growth outlook and cut 75bpshttp://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1912009-05-11T10:01:23.287 Since the turn in the USD in mid-July last year, GBP has been the worst performing currency in the G10...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1902009-05-11T10:00:26.833Last week, the market was overwhelmingly favored risk assets...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1892009-05-11T10:00:01.597As widely expected by the market, the ECB cut the benchmark refi rate 25bps to 1%...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1882009-05-07T09:59:17.087 In the short-term, while we would not fight the uptrend in Asia FX, we are wary that the US equities are now implying a much stronger growth rate than that forecasted by our economists, and that at some stage, markets would be vulnerable to a reversal of sentiment...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1872009-05-07T09:59:11.430 Looking at relationships between FX and equities over the course of 2009 suggests that AUD, CAD and GBP have all strengthened too much...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1862009-05-06T10:17:27.100The results of the bank stress test continue to leak out this morning ahead of tomorrow's scheduled releases.http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1852009-05-06T10:16:54.820 Brazil: The Central Bank unexpectedly offered USD3.4bn in reverse FX swaps on Tuesday. http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1842009-05-06T10:14:22.600 Market participants expect a stronger BRL...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1832009-05-05T10:00:37.663 The rally in risk assets has left longer-dated ‘growth downside’ option structures looking attractive in our view...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1822009-05-05T10:00:30.333In EM FX, both BRL and MXN continue to extend yesterday's gains...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1812009-05-05T10:00:23.960 Monetary easing continued in EM, but it was confined to the high yielders...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1802009-05-01T10:09:16.523 UK housing and GBP: The Nationwide house price series posted a better-than-expected outcome in April – prices declining by (just) 0...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1792009-05-01T10:09:04.163In the US, we will have the ISM manufacturing report out at 10AM this morning...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1782009-05-01T10:08:43.930 Brazil The Copom cut the Selic overnight rate target by 100bp to 10...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1772009-04-30T11:26:56.477 Net exports made another sizeable contribution to US GDP growth in Q1 2009, although this reflected a larger collapse in imports (-34...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1762009-04-30T11:26:54.820Lastly, please join us for a conference call at 4pm EST today for a discussion regarding the expanded derivative disclosures required by FAS 161 and FSP FAS 133-1...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1752009-04-30T11:26:52.913 US equities closed the day roughly flat despite heightened fears that the swine flu is spreading quickly...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1742009-04-29T14:53:57.740 Our US economists look for little new from the Fed today...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1732009-04-29T14:53:49.897Lastly, this morning's preliminary Q1 GDP report came out worse than expected at -6...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1722009-04-29T14:53:47.367 The USD/MXN rose 5...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1712009-04-28T10:01:05.867, Adam Boyton notes that there was no clear impact of the SARS outbreak in 2003 on G10 FX, and believes the same will be true in the case of the swine flu...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1702009-04-28T10:00:54.787In today's FX Daily, Adam Boyton notes that there was no clear impact of the SARS outbreak in 2003 on G10 FX, and believes the same will be true in the case of the swine flu...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1692009-04-28T10:00:18.617 Asian currencies have generally softened in the past week, in line with the weakness seen in global equities...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1682009-04-23T09:59:25.023 In our view the UK Budget is bearish for the pound - although as far as our GBP targets are concerned we aren't inclined to get even more bearish...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1672009-04-23T09:59:18.507 In the US, today's initial jobless claims came out in line with expectations at 640k, and last week's numbers were only revised higher from 610k to 613k...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1662009-04-23T09:59:05.100 In Korea, an event risk to keep an eye on would be GM Daewoo’s negotiation with local banks to rollover the existing forward contracts...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1652009-04-22T12:53:31.553 If equities do eventually break down as a major driver of the dollar what might replace them?  If we consider some of the broad trends in the dollar since its turn around the middle of last year, there does appear to have been one relatively consistent force worth considering - namely interest rate differentials...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1642009-04-22T12:53:30.070Also this morning, the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Alistair Darling, said in a statement to Parliament, that the government now expects the economy to decline by 3...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1632009-04-22T12:53:28.023 In the near-term, risk aversion and squaring of positions will dominate price action, but we believe that this will be followed by some consolidation and differentiation...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1622009-04-21T12:34:04.727 For USD/CAD the looser relationship between interest rates and the currency suggests that the BoC is unlikely to have a majorhttp://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1612009-04-21T12:34:03.023The Bank of Canada is expected to make its rate decision at 9AM this morning...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1602009-04-21T12:34:01.617 Poland became the 2nd country to apply for the IMF's new Flexible Credit Line yesterday, joining Mexico as being deemed to have "very strong economic fundamentals" and--in contrast to the IMF's other lending facilities-- not in need of adjustment...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1592009-04-15T10:27:10.330 A different take on JPY and the economy: Is a weak Japanese economy good or bad for JPY? Looking back at past Japanese recessions leaves us with no clear conclusion regarding the likely direction of USD/JPY (see the FX Daily of 13 February 2009)...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1582009-04-15T10:27:08.440On the US data front, the Empire Manufacturing report came in this morning at -14...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1572009-04-15T10:27:06.627 The MAS eased monetary policy today by lowering the mid-point of the SGD NEER policy band by 2%...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1562009-04-14T12:18:53.360 Both AUD and CLP are sensitive to trends in commodity prices...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1552009-04-14T12:18:51.030In the US this morning, retail sales came out notably weaker than expected at -1...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1542009-04-14T12:18:48.783With light liquidity in the market overnight, AUD/USD was able to break the 0.73 level, and is still trading well above Friday's closing level.Elsewhere, there has been little movement in G10 FX outside of AUD...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1532009-04-13T10:05:22.470EMFX should see further unwinding of EUR and USD longs, but real flows should gain importance as the technical rebound fades. We mix shorts in USD/BRL, USD/MXN, EUR/PLN, and USD/TRY with long USD (or EUR) exposure against more cyclical currencies such as ZAR, CZK ILS, and COP...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1522009-04-13T10:01:06.813Possible regulatory action to curb loan growth. This afternoon local press (sina.com.cn) reported that CBRC may issue new rules to curb lending growth, after the massive loan growth seen in the p...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1512009-04-08T09:33:16.140AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY have been the two strongest crosses in G10 FX in recent weeks.  This in part reflected that the very weak Japanese economy was weighing on JPY, while a recovery in risk appeti...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1502009-04-08T09:33:14.657Despite a decline in global equity markets, G10 FX was relatively quiet overnight. The majority of the movement was in USD/JPY, which declined to a low of 99.47, and is still trading belo...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1492009-04-08T09:33:14.140The earning season starts today in the US with Alcoa (after the bell) while financials start to report next week. We mentioned in our previous daily that this week would be an interesting testing...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1482009-04-07T09:33:00.547Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced a 25 bps cut to bring the country's cash rate down 3%. AUD rallied on the news, as the market was anticipating a cut of as much as 50bps...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1472009-04-07T09:32:59.953This week will provide an interesting testing ground for the bullish tone in the markets as the tailwinds from G20 fade and we gear-up for next week’s earnings. Economic data suggest that the glo...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1462009-04-06T09:40:16.750USD is beginning to demonstrate some strength, after falling against G10 FX this morning in London. Despite this slight retracement, the signs of renewed risk-taking that we saw last week...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1452009-04-06T09:40:15.517With USD1.1trillion in new commitments to IFI's, any perception that the IMF would be liquidity constrained in helping EM should now largely have evaporated. Of course this does not mean that EM currency weakness is now a thing of thepast...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1442009-04-03T10:05:44.690FX volatility tends to fall as the summer approaches. USD/JPY implied volatility has fallen in April in 15 of the past 16 years. Most of that fall is concentrated in the first and second weeks, where JPY volatilities fall an average of 0.5% each...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1432009-04-03T10:05:42.237US Nonfarm payrolls came out virtually in line with expectations this morning at 663K. Additionally, we had a total of 86k in downward revisions to the previous months...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1422009-04-03T10:05:39.563Stepping back, it has been a remarkable performance by the dollar over the past week or so given what's been thrown at it. Questions (misplaced, in our view) about the dollar's status as the global reserve currency and the start of QE by the Fed top the list. A solid equity market bounce should have also weighed given current correlations...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1412009-03-30T10:06:36.460March has been a good month for risky assets, with two-digit stock markets returns, a 11% rally in CRB, a 6% LAFX appreciation (using a trade-weighted basket), and rates giving back some of the February/early March gains...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1402009-03-30T10:04:25.553We come in this morning to find USD much stronger than we left it on Friday afternoon against the euro. Unfortunately, this move for the USD comes on the back of a fresh round of risk aversion and not positive news about the US economy...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1392009-03-30T10:02:15.650The past week or so has seen a batch of better–than-expected data in the US, and also a batch of monthly gains in a range of series. The S&P 500 is on track for its best month since either 1987. It’s certainly tempting to put the two together and conclude that things are on the way up with the economy having bottomed and markets reflecting this...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1382009-03-27T10:18:17.540Brazil’s unemployment rate rose to 8.5% in February from 8.2% in January, remaining significantly below our 9.0% forecast. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, according tour own calculations, the unemployment rate actually declined to 8.4% from 8.6%. Although job creation declined in February, the labor force also declined, perhaps reflecting the worsening confidence and perspectives for finding a job...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1372009-03-27T10:09:39.337The US dollar has extended its gains overnight, specifically against EUR, GBP, and CAD. GBP/USD is lower this morning on the back of a weak Q4 GDP report. Additionally, the UK current account deficit widened over the same period...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1362009-03-27T10:08:27.977Romania is now the fourth EMEA country (the other being Latvia, Hungary, and Ukraine) to have official support. Given the need to bring inflation down, we expect some of these resources to be used to keep the EUR/RON below 4.3...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1352009-03-26T10:09:35.727In the G10 space, the Scandinavian currencies are the top performers so far on the day. NZD has also moved higher on the back of NZ rates jumping overnight. Our strategist here in NY notes that this move in NZ rates is most likely the result of homeowners refinancing at relatively low rates for that country and warns that this move will not last...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1342009-03-26T10:08:20.540Moody’s says no imminent downgrade. After Fitch warned last week that Mexico’s sovereign rating ceiling could be downgraded if the government’s fiscal response to the ongoing turmoil were inappropriate, Moody’s went public this week to indicate that the country’s investment grade rating is safe for now, and hat the media claims of a “failed state” because of the recent upsurge in drug-related violence was exaggerated...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1332009-03-25T10:06:24.663USD continues to gain strength this morning across the currency markets, helped by weak data releases from other G10 countries. While this morning's German Ifo business confidence numbers were roughly in line with expectations, the report did represent a 26-year low...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1322009-03-25T10:05:15.990Yesterday's meetings in Hungary and Israel brought no surprises except for the disappearance of a more overt reference to potential QE by BoI and Hungary, the Governor's indication that the MPC had actually considered a 100bp hike despite further deterioration in the economy is worth noting...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1312009-03-24T10:05:58.070The USD has received a bit of a boost on the back of the Treasury's latest plan to revive the economy. The US dollar has made gains overnight against all G10 currencies, with the exception of GBP, which jumped two big figures on the back of a higher than expected UK inflation report...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1302009-03-24T10:04:21.960Looking at recent FX developments in the G10 we notice that the NOK has been the top performer over the past week, and chances are that this trend could extend a bit further, with the upcoming Norges Bank (NB) meeting if anything likely to provide some support for the NOK...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1292009-03-23T10:10:16.150Our hypothesis that the Fed’s move to QE, made room for more aggressive cuts in Colombia and Mexico on Friday was validated (at least in the first test), but we see room for the rates rally to continue. In Europe, similar policies from the ECB are further off, but rates are still likely to move lower on dismal economic performance, ...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1282009-03-23T10:07:32.350Last night the Fed announced a plan buy toxic assets, in an effort to free up space on banks' balance sheets. Treasury Secretary Geithner will hold a formal press conference this evening (6PM in Washington, D.C.), however, some of the details of the plan are being released this morning...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1272009-03-23T10:05:38.960Today we make a quick quantification of the Fed's QE. Our focus here is an attempt to answer the question: is this a game changer for risk assets, the growth outlook, and - thinking more specifically about G10 FX - the $-bloc currencies? Or not?...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1262009-03-20T10:12:05.600The change in market tone yesterday raises a yellow flag for risky markets, but it does not change our bullish view on rates. We have been more constructive LAFX over the past couple weeks as a bear-market rally seemed in the making and because of EUR/USD upside risks...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1252009-03-20T10:07:56.117While the USD has recovered slightly overnight, we believe that there is more topside risk for EUR/USD. Although not right away, our economists once again considering the idea that we could see the 1.50 level in the next few months. However, they warn that if it does occur, it would be short-lived, as the ECB would step in to alleviate some of the pressure on the currency...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1242009-03-20T10:06:05.117To be sure we did not expect this announcement from the Fed today. However, the initial impact in FX markets in the wake of the Fed’s announcement has largely followed the path we sketched out in yesterday’s daily if they did surprise and engage in QE - with the dollar sharply weaker...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1232009-03-19T10:20:14.210The market has been trading on a better tone on expectation of better results in financials and the possibility of additional multilateral/bilateral support for EM. This Fed announcement, with USD weakness, reduces the FX pass-through risk and supports low rates for longer, reinforcing rates “convergence” in EM...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1222009-03-19T10:16:30.400The market is still trying to digest yesterday's surprise announcement from the Fed yesterday. After a relatively quiet night, currency markets are on the move again this morning, with the main sentiment being USD weakness. EUR and AUD have been the key beneficiaries of this move...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1212009-03-19T10:15:08.633Our economists do not expect any significant steps from the Fed following the conclusion of their meeting today. If the statement makes any progression toward actually buying Treasuries we expect that to be very modest indeed. This suggests the meeting could well be shaping up to be a repeat of the prior one...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1202009-03-18T10:13:22.523Mexico - A mini-trade war with the US. In retaliation for the US decision to impose restrictions to Mexican 18-wheel trucks’s circulation in US territory, the Mexican government increased import tarifs on 90 industrial and agricultural items, which in 2007 represented a total of $2.4bn. Mexico’s Economy Ministry said it will provide details about the new tariffs later this week...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1192009-03-18T10:09:27.900In the G10 FX space, both GBP and CAD are lower this morning. This current decline for GBP comes on the back of yet another round of negative data. UK unemployment rose to 4.3% in February, the highest rate since 1971. Aside from these two currencies, USD remains weak within both G10 and EM FX...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1182009-03-18T10:06:56.930Retail sales rose 1.8% in January and fell only -0.1% in February. If we strip out automobiles, which can sometimes distort the underlying trend in spending, retails sales were up 1.6% in January and +0.7% in February. To be sure, these figures were much better than what we had forecast and have caused some investors to wonder if the economy, led by the consumer, is turning around. We do not think so, because the labor market is fundamentally weak and likely getting even weaker...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1172009-03-17T10:13:37.320As highlighted in yesterday’s daily, both syndicate and loan markets remain severely disrupted. One implication of this for CEE is that—given the large financing needs—a large part of the currency weakness is structural rather than speculative...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1162009-03-17T10:10:36.680In the FX markets, the Scandinavian currencies are the top performers again today, while GBP has dipped lower again. Interesting, EUR/USD is slightly lower today (and recently broke through the low barrier of 1.2950), despite a positive outlook from the ZEW survey this morning...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1152009-03-17T10:09:10.477In LatAm the focus of the week will be in the monetary policy meetings in Colombia and Mexico where we expect the easing cycle to continue. On the back of rapidly decelerating economic activity, and with the authorities about to announce a significant downward revision in growth projects for the current year, we expect BanRep to lower the target rate by an additional 150bp this year...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1142009-03-16T10:07:34.790We are beginning to see signs of life within G10 FX, with SEK, GBP, NZD, and NOK emerging as today's top performers. SEK improved today on the back of comments from this weekend's G20 conference, that the IMF will be able to provide increased support for the currently struggling Eastern European economies...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1132009-03-16T10:06:07.773Looking back at currency performance over the past week or so, one thing stands out. Namely GBP and CAD have lagged. When we look for a common driver among the two, quantitative easing springs to mind. The Bank of Canada noted in its statement last Tuesday that the bank was studying QE if required, while the Bank of England has moved to implement QE over the past week (following their meeting / statement last Thursday)...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1122009-03-12T10:18:22.307One of the most favored client topics in EMFX right now is "policy risk": how much money will the official sector throw at defending currencies, what is the status of IMF programs, could the upcoming G20 Finance Ministers' meeting this weekend (ahead of the London Summit on 2 April) pull a rabbit out of its hat...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1112009-03-12T10:15:01.977The Russian ruble is making headlines again, after declining 1.2% against the USD overnight. This moves comes on the back of a rather ominous forecast from Alfa Bank, Russia's largest privately owned bank, that the currency could lose as much as 20% against the basket this year...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1102009-03-12T10:10:33.133With the benefit of hindsight it's clear to all that there was a bubble in housing. If we look around asset classes and markets where might we see a bubble at the moment? The framework we use to examine this question is very simple and solely US demand based...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1092009-03-11T10:39:29.683Brazil's GDP plunged a seasonally-adjusted 3.6% QoQ in 4Q08 after growing 1.7% in 3Q08. The result was much worse than our -2.0% forecast. The sharp decline in GDP in 4Q08 leaves a negative “carryover” for 2009 of approximately 1.5%. In other words: if GDP remains unchanged at the 4Q08 levels throughout the year, it will decline 1.5% in 2009...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1082009-03-11T10:33:55.663EUR is stronger yet again this morning, despite weak data out of Germany. There are still no clear trends in G10 FX, with most currency pairs continuing to trade sideways and CAD and GBP as the clear underperformers in the group. Our trend analysis report indicates that both JPY and GBP are undervalued against the US dollar, and the now against the euro as well...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1072009-03-11T10:32:04.463To be sure, the big picture elements underlying our bullish USD/CAD view have not changed. A horrible global economy will keep downward pressure on commodity prices - while we also observe a tendency for the $ bloc currencies to continue falling even after the US economy has troughed...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1062009-03-10T12:31:08.583In Mexico, the currency also continues under pressure, falling to historical lows against the rest of LatAm, despite the USD100mn daily (non-contingent) sales which was introduced last Thursday and started yesterday. Nevertheless, we doubt whether monetary policy can be used effectively to support the currency...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1052009-03-10T12:26:52.730The FX markets have been relatively quiet overnight. USD is marginally weaker this morning, but looking back over the last week, we have not seen any major moves in G7 FX, with the exception of CAD and GBP. For that reason, it is hard to get a gauge on where we are going from here...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1042009-03-10T12:25:17.547The magnitude and breadth of the weakness in the February employment report has darkened our economic assessment for H2. While we continue to expect that second half growth will be better than the first half, we no longer look for a second half recovery in which GDP growth is positive and begins a sustained, albeit very gradual, recovery. Instead, we are marking our estimate of Q3 real GDP growth down from unchanged to -1.5%, and we are marking our forecast of Q4 real GDP growth down from +1.0% to -0.5%...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1032009-03-09T14:18:33.953Despite Friday's weak US employment data, USD is stronger this morning across most of G10 FX, and particularly against GBP. The British currency is down almost 2% this morning due to the mounting concern over the level of toxicity of the bad loans in HSBC's US division...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1022009-03-09T14:14:10.330We would like to confi rm to our clients and shareholders that, due to our 100% cash balance sheet, we remain as strong and secure as ever. We have no credit investments and no derivatives, and we did not invest in any of the markets or products that are now causing such problems around the world.http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/docs/BCB_Strength_stability_08.pdf2009-03-09T10:37:30.543Payrolls continue to be an inconsistent driver of G10 FX over their day of release. That is, at the moment there is no particularly strong relationship between payrolls surprises and moves in either EUR/USD or USD/JPY over the course of the day. Since the middle of last year there has been, however, a solid relationship between payrolls surprises and the change in the S&P 500 on the day...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=1002009-03-06T10:23:04.803The backdrop of yesterday’s events in the UK and the EU should continue to weigh on EMFX, and Mexico’s new attempt to stem the peso’s so far trend-depreciation may prove insufficient...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=992009-03-06T10:18:58.223This morning Nonfarm payrolls at 8:30AM showed a job loss of 651K and unemployment rose to 8.1%. Our economists were expecting a loss of 750K jobs, which would be the largest monthly decline since October of 1949...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=982009-03-06T10:16:35.800During the course of ECB press conferences we have continued to see ‘hawkish’ or ‘dovish’ comments from Trichet have an immediate impact on EUR/USD, notwithstanding the fact that the broader relationship between EUR/USD and nominal interest rate differentials broke down some time ago and has not (yet) re asserted itself...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=972009-03-05T10:10:16.180We take a special interest in the ECB's post rate decision press conference today. Political leaders at the recent EU summit noted they might be willing to "take a look at" letting countries into ERM-II sooner rather than later, though without changing the 2-year minimum period, or the other Maastricht criteria...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=962009-03-05T10:06:56.687To the dismay of a very hopeful market, the details of the Chinese stimulus package did not include the massive additions that had been predicted. Instead, the policy address by Premier Wen contained no new information...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=952009-03-05T10:05:02.303Though risk aversion remains strong in the currency market, we saw a bit of resistance overnight against yesterday's strength in the US dollar. USD is down from yesterday's closing levels across G10 FX, with the exception of GBP/USD. Equity markets seemed poised for a rebound, after yesterday's massive decline, with US equity futures are up slightly this morning...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=942009-03-03T09:42:36.123Local press quoted a broker report saying that "the government is considering a stimulus package amounting to RMB8-10tn", up from the previous RMB4tn. We think this message is highly speculative and misleading. Our understanding, based on discussions with officials, is that a doubling of fiscal stimulus from the currently agreed level for 2009 is unlikely, at least in the near term. The reasons are: ...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=932009-03-02T10:55:37.170We arrived this morning to find risk aversion re-emerging in the market, and USD stronger as a result. In G10 FX, GBP/USD and USD/CAD are the big movers this morning, with USD up 1.6% and 1% against each currency respectively.http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=922009-03-02T10:53:10.997In an attempt to further curtail pressure on their currencies, central banks in Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Romania opted for coordinated verbal intervention. The common statement (available on both the Hungarian and Romanian central bank websites) claimed that some depreciation had been justified while parent banks remained committed to their subsidiaries, but "excessive" depreciation should be avoided...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=912009-02-24T10:33:18.993Canvassing views on the more peripheral G10 currencies it is clear that two views in particular are currently dominant, 1) that the NOK will continue to appreciate from current levels while 2) the depreciation in the NZD has significantly further to go. Norway's strong fiscal balances and the NZD's pro-cyclical characteristics certainly support these views...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=902009-02-24T10:23:11.363Global equities are lower again today, while the FX markets are mixed. The combination of concerns and sighs of relief over the discussions regarding the potential nationalization of Citi and the today's new conversations about AIG seem to be the cause of the confusion in the markets...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=892009-02-24T10:17:31.533Last week we wrote that the economy may stop shrinking in H2 and that there was tentative, albeit inconclusive, evidence of a better second half. Make no mistake, this should not be interpreted to mean that we are becoming more bullish on the second half of the year, it merely means that we expect H2 economic activity to be better than H1—but better is a relative term...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=882009-02-23T09:45:46.983In LatAm, we expect Colombia to cut 50bp on Friday, as FX risk (beyond the normal adjustment to external conditions) is low. Currency instability has de facto constrained Central Banks. But a more conservative monetary policy stance does not seem to be the fix (see the opposite responses to Mexico’s and Chile’s Central Banks with the USD/MXN almost breaching 15 before Banxico intervened)...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=862009-02-23T09:39:02.817A WSJ report on the current talks between Citigroup and the US government have garnered most of the attention this morning in the market. The article notes that although nothing has been finalized yet, the current plans under review could lead to the government holding as much as 40% of Citi's common stock.http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=852009-02-23T09:36:30.007Currency markets have witnessed wider ranges, negative volatility risk premium, and falling liquidity this year. This environment presents potential opportunities through volatility products. In this week's Special we outline our main thoughts...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=842009-02-20T09:46:08.260Currency markets were relatively unchanged last night. After dipping slightly overnight, USD/JPY remains strong trading and is trading just about the 94.00 level. Our technical analysts like USD/JPY to continue this move higher, and see the next major level at 94.95, and then 96.90, with supports on the downside at 93.70/30 and then down at 92.10. EUR/USD,...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=832009-02-20T09:43:07.220The market tone was better yesterday but US equities yielded to weak housing and activity data and the lingering talks of nationalization weighing on financials. Meanwhile, US officials continue to unveil stimulus plans - this time a USD275bn package to stem foreclosures by trimming mortgage payments (USD75bn) and doubling the USD200bn funding available for Fannie and Freddie to buy loans...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=822009-02-19T10:00:15.183EUR/USD is higher this morning following the approval from the German government of the first bank nationalization since 1930. Yesterday, the Cabinet approved a draft of the legislation that would permit the state to take full control of the German lender Hypo Real Estate Holding...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=812009-02-19T09:56:44.023Net foreign purchases of US financial assets totaled $74.0bn in December - a healthy number given the collapse in the US trade deficit over recent months. Within the headline long term purchases of US financial assets totaled $34.8bn, largely reflecting strong private demand for US corporate bonds...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=802009-02-18T10:13:01.210After a somewhat rocky night, EUR/USD is now trading right around it's closing levels from yesterday just below the 1.26 level. The news about the worsen of the CE3 economies continues to come out, and is clearly still weighing heavily on the euro...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=792009-02-18T10:09:21.290EastNets, a leading global provider of compliance and payments solutions and services, announced today that Bermuda Commercial Bank (BCB) has selected its en.SafeWatch Profiling anti-money laundering solution to meet compliance regulations and boost defenses against financial crime. The application will serve as the central data processing, trend/pattern analysis and suspicious behavior identification engine supporting the Transaction Monitoring initiative at BCB.http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/docs/EastNets_PR_BermudaCB.pdf2009-02-18T09:06:01.540Looking at EUR/USD, there is some casual evidence that a relative expansion of fiscal policy at least coincides with currency weakness, judging by the developments between EUR/USD and relative debt levels over the past 30 years. For example, from the late 1970s to the mid 1980s we saw a gradual deterioration in the level of debt as % of GDP in Europe vs the US, which was reflected in a stronger USD vs the EUR...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=772009-02-17T10:19:14.547Central European currencies, once again, came under significant pressure yesterday on the back of an article over the weekend that the Austrian government was trying to put together a $150bn multilateral rescue package to bolster banking systems in CEE and - by extension - prevent a "collapse of the Austrian financial sector"...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=762009-02-17T10:16:16.727EUR is 1.4% and 1.2% lower against USD and GBP respectively following a negative report from Moody's this morning. The rating agency commented today that eastern European banks are likely to experience "downward pressure", which could in turn lead to declines for their parent companies.http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=752009-02-17T10:14:34.207While the passage of the stimulus plan through the Senate should not be to much of an event today, the unveiling of the Financial Stability plan by US Treasury Secretary Geithner, and ensuing testimony, could be a major market driver. Already we have seen risk sentiment sour in today’s Asian session on reports that the plan does not include a stand-alone government "Bad Bank", instead favoring a public-private partnership that can buy distressed assets..."http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=742009-02-10T09:40:10.500After the market seemingly holding its breath for most of the day yesterday, we will finally hear the details of the Financial Stability Plan from Treasury Secretary Geithner today. Last night's presidential press conference provided some hints of what the plan would include, but also noted that the forewarned that while the plan is not perfect, action is necessary to remedy this "profound economic emergency."http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=732009-02-10T09:34:44.600The week ahead should be dominated by a range of policy makers and events, starting with US Treasury Secretary Geithner’s speech today and culminating with the G7 Finance Ministers meeting on Friday and Saturday. As far as price action on Friday was concerned, we struggle to see the longer-term logic behind buying risk assets on the back of a terrible set of employment numbers in the US...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=722009-02-09T09:38:03.507Sometimes bad news is good news and the recent spate of disappointing numbers in the US may turn out to be the catalyst needed to approve the stimulus packages in the pipeline and bring a better sentiment to this market. We are of the view that the stimulus will likely come short of jump-starting the economy...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=712009-02-09T09:34:20.037After a volatile night for some currencies, due to light liquidity in Sydney, most of G10 FX is now largely unchanged from Friday's closing levels. Global equities and US equity futures are slightly lower this morning...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=702009-02-09T09:32:33.490In the FX Weekly we: highlight a few trade ideas in correlation and volatility swap space to take advantage of the mismatch between realised and implied USD/CHF vol. We argue that in Hungary and Romania there will come a point where the collateral weakness caused by FX depreciation becomes unbearable...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=692009-02-06T10:27:57.923Yesterday also saw a relief rally in EMEA FX following the governor's verbal intervention in HUF and the announcement that NBH would be extending a EUR5bn (6M) swap facility to banks from its reserves to ease FX liquidity pressures...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=682009-02-06T10:16:58.560With last night's warning from the Canadian Finance Minister that today's employment data was going to be "very regrettable", we were anticipating a weak number this morning. However, the actual report was still proved to be a surprise...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=672009-02-06T10:14:08.720With the global economy and financial system gripped in a negative feedback loop, an already severe recession has intensified. Aggressive and coordinated policy action will be needed to break this downward spiral and begin to achieve economic and financial stabilization later this year...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=662009-02-05T09:43:52.617As expected the Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 50bps this morning. GBP/USD caught a bid on the announcement, as the statement, which did highlight the weakness in the UK economy, did not mention quantitative easing as an option at this point...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=642009-02-05T09:42:11.360It was the relentless pressure on EMEA FX that took center stage in EM. After threatening it for several days, EUR/HUF finally breached the 300 level yesterday. This takes the forint depreciation in 2009 to almost 12% and continues to rattle the authorities...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=632009-02-04T09:49:26.600USD is stronger this morning, but not as a result of any overwhelmingly positive news out of the US. With even more negative news about the UK economy and Fitch downgrading Russia's long-term debt rating (from BBB+ to BBB), investors are returning to the USD as risk aversion picks up yet againhttp://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=622009-02-04T09:46:50.823Brazil Central Bank survey shows lower expectations for inflation, growth and interest rates. According to the Focus survey with market participants, the consensus forecast for the IPCA consumer price index for 2009 fell to 4.60% last week from 4.64% in the previous week (and from 5.00% four weeks ago)...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=612009-02-03T09:58:52.890The Reserve Bank of Australia cut 100bps last night to bring the cash target rate down to 3.25%. Although the move was widely expected by the market, AUD/USD popped higher on the release, enough to convincingly break through the 0.6400 level...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=602009-02-03T09:56:20.847EUR/USD continued its decline overnight, reaching a low of 1.2807 before beginning to turn around. One major story weighing heavily on the euro is this morning's negative outlook on Irish government debt from Moody's.http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=592009-01-30T10:44:06.433Japan's trade data have taken a dramatic turn for the worse - with Japan having run (on a BoP basis) a trade deficit over the past four months. At first glance such a development would appear abnormal. In this world, however, abnormal depends heavily on your reference point...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=582009-01-29T10:03:59.043In Brazil, today's COPOM minutes may shed more light on what the CB meant by stating that 100bp was a substantial part of the adjustment it foresees. While this may have some market impact, we question how informative this will really be...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=572009-01-29T09:59:28.630Today's weak German unemployment numbers pushed EUR/USD lower in early trading in Europe. However, in the last 2 hours we have already seen a correction large enough to overcome the loses overnight for the euro...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=562009-01-29T09:57:42.470Even though we believe the Fed will eventually be forced to purchase Treasuries in an attempt to cap their yields—we do not believe the Fed is going to announce those intentions today...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=552009-01-28T09:56:22.383Another MPC meeting, another larger than expected cut. Poland's MPC cut by 75bp yesterday, with a dovish statement to boot, once again surprising a market that is trying to price these cuts as aggressively as possible. Equating larger than expected rate cuts with potential further currency weakness,...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=542009-01-28T09:48:20.177Without any major data releases today, our focus shifts once again back to the US government. First, the House will be voting today on the now $816bn economic stimulus package. The proposed plan is not expected to face any obstacles in the House, but could still meet a bit of resistance once it reaches the Senate...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=532009-01-28T09:45:58.470There are certainly risks to our bullish view on EM rates, as lower growth settles in, fiscal results deteriorate and thus supply pressure builds. FX risks are also relevant, especially in EMEA...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=522009-01-27T09:54:20.287In Europe, the German Ifo numbers came out stronger than expected. Today's report, the first positive survey result in eight months, follows a series of cuts from the ECB and an increase in the size of the economic stimulus package...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=512009-01-27T09:52:13.730GBP was once again the headliner overnight in G10 FX, following bearish comments on the UK economy from David Blanchflower, a member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee. In an interview with the UK's Sunday Times, Blanchflower stated that he sees unemployment rising from it's current levels of 1.92m to 3m in a year's time, and warns that it could even go higher...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=502009-01-26T10:11:00.593Currency markets are groping for the right macro theme from EMU break-up to a renewed financial crisis. Correlations are breaking down and then re-appearing, but through the noise, we view 3 important messages emerging...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=492009-01-23T10:04:30.310CBR’s announcement today that it is capping near-term basket depreciation at 41 significantly reduces near-term upside to Rub shorts. However, we do not believe NDF forwards will fully converge on the announced 41 ceiling on the basket and expect the top of the basket to be tested...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=482009-01-23T09:45:22.547Following another round of negative data reports, GBP is lower again this morning. UK Q4 GDP numbers came out weaker than expected today (QoQ - Actual: -1.5% vs. Estimate: -1.2%; YoY- Actual: -1.8% vs. Estimate: -1.4%)...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=472009-01-23T09:42:37.593With signs that the financial stress is deepening in Europe, there are more reasons to expect rising risk aversion. European housing is probably as overvalued as the US market was and the correction in Europe is in its early stages...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=462009-01-21T10:00:29.470Global equities continue to struggle even after yesterday's major declines, with stocks are down across Asia and Europe. Interestingly, US equity futures are positive on the day so far, but just barely...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=452009-01-21T09:58:38.903So far in 2009 we have seen EUR/USD respond adversely on a couple of occasions to rating agency actions on eurozone countries, with the single currency being especially hard hit in the past 24 hours following the downgrade of Spain by S&P, with EUR/USD having fallen below 1.30 at time of writing...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=442009-01-20T10:05:37.440Large short position building in Russia. In Russia, CBR Monday devalued the Ruble for the 6th time this year, amidst news reports of massive central bank intervention. We believe CBR is likely to stick with the existing de facto crawling band arrangement for at least this month, before possibly moving to a “dirty” float...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=432009-01-20T09:59:56.880Yesterday's less than market-pleasing announcement from RBS has set the tone for the day in both the equity and currency markets. EUR/USD and GBP/USD are both significantly lower this morning...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=422009-01-20T09:57:30.233With currency markets lacking a clear direction in the past few days, we look to other areas to attempt to decipher the overall tone in the market. Until today, global equities had been losing ground over the course of the week as negative data reports and unsavory Q4 results dampened the mood...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=412009-01-16T09:55:44.677In line with market expectations (and ours), the ECB just announced a 50 bps cut, bringing the benchmark refinance rate down to 2%. EUR/USD moved lower on the back of the news, making new lows for the day, through the 1.31 level...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=402009-01-15T09:47:41.890We have highlighted in the past the continuing correlation and tight levels relationship between the Eurozone / US real interest rate differential and EUR/USD. Given that the two remain in line, we therefore need to have a view on the likely evolution of the real rate differential in order to sketch out a path for EUR/USD based on this relationship...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=392009-01-14T09:55:46.673The Thai central bank cut its benchmark interest rate more than expected this month to 2.00%, from 2.75%. The decision came as the nation's inflation rate slowed to its lowest level in six years and continuous protesting caused overall confidence to decline...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=382009-01-14T09:48:56.457USD is still on top this morning following yesterday's negative S&P outlook for Spain and this morning's very week business confidence report in New Zealand. EUR/USD has come off its overnight low of 1.3224, but is still down about 0.6% from yesterday's close...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=372009-01-13T09:54:53.793We noted ahead of last month's payrolls release that the r-squared on payrolls surprises and the daily change in USD/JPY over 2008 was 0.00. The same (even to the second decimal place) was the case for EUR/USD...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=362009-01-09T09:55:13.530The December nonfarm payroll came in at -524k this morning. Our economists are were expecting a loss of 600K jobs, with the market being spot on and is calling for a report of -525K. However the 0.5% increase in unemployment was higher then the 0.3% increase our economists predicted...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=352009-01-09T09:50:27.800We noted yesterday the tendency for some seasonal weakness in the EUR in January in the context of the collapse in EUR/GBP over the past week or so...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=342009-01-08T10:09:36.307The Bank of England's MPC lowered its benchmark interest rate this morning by 0.5% to 1.5%, in line with market expectations. GBP spiked higher on the news and backed off just ahead of the 1.53 level...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=332009-01-08T10:05:20.867What's up with EUR/GBP? After having almost soared to parity in the final days of 2008, EUR/GBP has come off hard over 2009 (well so far at least), with the pair trading around 0.9050...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=322009-01-07T10:07:38.850The central bank of China issued a statement yesterday outlining its policy direction for 2009. PBOC will continue to adopt an “appropriately loose” monetary policy stance and will make use of a broad range of policy tools...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=312009-01-07T10:03:54.560USD lost some ground overnight in G10 FX, after beginning the new year on such a positive note. Yesterday's notably bearish FOMC minutes dampened the mood slightly, but USD seemed to recover before we left for the day...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=302009-01-07T09:58:28.017In this daily we take a brief look at recent correlation patterns in the G10 against the EUR/USD and the VIX, arguably the two key variables over the past 6 months, or ever since the inception of the USD rally at the beginning of August last year...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=292009-01-06T09:52:40.043The US dollar continued to strengthen overnight against other G10 currencies, as well as in EMFX. Reports are pointing to several recent announcements and events as the cause for the dollar's relative strength in the currency markets, but we have yet to see anything tangible that would support such a move...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=282009-01-06T09:46:04.807The current USD cycle so far seems to have developed largely in line with previous recession patterns. Looking ahead history would also suggest that the USD will remain subdued over the next couple of months before staging a recovery...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=272009-01-05T09:50:58.173US dollar is stronger this morning on the back of increased market confidence that President-elect Obama's fiscal stimulus plan will provide the much needed support for the US economy and possibly do so sooner than expected...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=262009-01-05T09:47:25.730This morning's US initial jobless claims report came out slightly better than expected at 492K, while the market was calling for 575K...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=252008-12-31T10:10:30.260The violence over the weekend in the Gaza strip has given the market a decidedly negative tone. As a result, higher oil prices are hurting USD this morning...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=242008-12-29T10:26:19.887While 2008 net income failed to match 2007 levels, BCB did not see any of the large losses which are currently having such a devastating impact on global banking profitability. The Bank has no credit derivative investments and our liquidity is second to none. BCB’s long-standing conservative approach to managing our capital and our clients’ deposits meant the Bank did not fully share in the fruits of the boom years but on the other hand, this strategy is currently serving us very well....http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/docs/AnnualReports/BCB_Annual_Report_2008.pdf2008-12-19T15:00:00The Fed’s adoption of near-ZIRP combined with a relatively more aggressive expected fiscal expansion in the US brought the remarkable July-November rally in the dollar to an abrupt end and has sparked a number of concerns regarding prospects for the dollar....http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=212008-12-19T11:05:03.543Trying to make sense of USD developments in recent months might be backward looking but also useful in terms of getting a feel for the direction from here on. There have obviously been a number of theories explaining the movements in the USD and rather than trying to be original we have chosen to briefly identify two of them as maybe more relevant than others....http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=202008-12-19T11:03:38.010While USD did post gains overnight against EUR, it is still weaker against the rest of the G10 currencies. The unique move in EUR/USD seems to be a response to the ECB's decision to cut the deposit rate yesterday....http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=192008-12-19T11:01:26.003The USD weakness trend continues to prevail following yesterday's 75-100 bps cut by the Fed. As previously noted, USD had been declining well in advance of yesterday's announcement, and finally broke through the 1.40 level in EUR/USD, reaching a high of 1.4193 overnight...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=172008-12-17T10:26:46.870The Ecuador default, which is first major sovereign default since Argentina in 2001, naturally raises questions about whether this is the first of a number of sovereign defaults...http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/news/news_details.aspx?n=162008-12-16T09:54:15.483Bermuda Commercial Bank is proud to welcome 5 staff members to its 2008 Long Service Award Honours. The experience, knowledge, and professionalism of our Long Service Award recipients is outstanding, and we are pleased to recognize them for their loyal service to the Bank and its clients. http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/docs/BCB-LSA2_Web.pdf2008-11-28T10:00:00Bermuda Commercial Bank is proud to add three staff to its Long Service Award Honors. Mrs. L. Ann Robinson, Mrs. Sophia Ming, and Ms. Sue Davis have together contributed 85 years of service. Their dedication has supported the Bank, and they have seen it grow from its early days to the success that it is today.http://www.bermuda-bcb.com/docs/BCB_long%20service%20awards%206x8.pdf2008-09-15T10:00:00